Rays Favored Over Struggling Blue Jays as Gausman Faces Rasmussen

Baseball betting has not gone well the past few days. Sometimes the matchups look solid, but the results do not follow. It is easy to second-guess a bet after a loss, and there is truth to that.

On Wednesday, the Philadelphia Phillies led the Miami Marlins 1-0 through five innings. Aaron Nola pitched better than expected, so the play on the Marlins lost. It was not a bad matchup, though. Now Toronto Blue Jays face the Tampa Bay Rays, with hope to rebound.

The Blue Jays came within inches of winning the World Series last year. This season, they fight just to reach the playoffs. They sit three games under .500 in one of baseball's toughest divisions. Their pitching staff posts a 4.27 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Kevin Gausman starts for Toronto. He stands 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.96 WHIP this year. In three road starts, only one qualified as quality. He has given up nine earned runs in 16.2 innings. Tampa Bay hitters bat .351 against him in 74 at-bats, though with just four extra-base hits.

Tampa Bay wins no matter the roster. The Rays sit at 22-12, one of baseball's best records. At home, they go 12-4. The team hits .253, with pitchers at 3.67 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

Drew Rasmussen starts for the Rays. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. In two home starts, he worked six innings each time, allowing six hits, one walk and one earned run over 12 innings. Blue Jays bat .200 against him but have five extra-base hits in 12 total hits. That shows they hit the ball hard when connecting.

The Rays hold the edge and should win. At -130, they offer value. Rasmussen dominates at home. Gausman keeps the line tight, but Toronto struggles on the road while Tampa Bay excels there.

One prop bet stands out. Yandy Diaz hits .583 against Gausman in 12 at-bats. Take him for 2+ total bases at +120.