Timberwolves-Spurs Game 1 Best Bet: Under 218 Total Points

The second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs opens Monday with Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference semifinals Game 1.

Minnesota went 2-1 against San Antonio in the regular season, winning straight up and against the spread, with the total hitting the Over in two of three games. Bettors should discount those results, though, given load management and tanking. The pick here is the Under 218 total points.

San Antonio ranked third in defensive efficiency during the regular season, while Minnesota came in eighth. Those numbers match the eye test. The three regular-season meetings averaged 96.0 possessions per 48 minutes, below the league's 99.4 average pace. Playoff games so far sit at 95.5, which projects to about 92.1 pace for this series.

Both teams must drain threes or get to the foul line often for the Over to hit. Minnesota allowed the fewest made threes per game in the regular season. San Antonio led the NBA in defensive free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt rate.

Timberwolves All-Star shooting guard Anthony Edwards carries a questionable tag for Game 1. He likely sits until the series shifts to Minneapolis for Game 3. Shooting guard Donte DiVincenzo is out for the season, and combo guard Ayo Dosunmu missed Minnesota's closeout win over the Denver Nuggets in the first round and is questionable Monday. Their absence cramps Minnesota's floor spacing.

The Timberwolves opened as 14.5-point underdogs but moved to 12.5 after the Edwards news. San Antonio ranks as the second-toughest defense for a player returning from injury, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs feature long, athletic wings to hound Edwards, with Victor Wembanyama protecting the rim.

Without Edwards, Minnesota figures to run its offense through power forward Julius Randle. He plays too much isolation ball and attacks off the dribble. Center Rudy Gobert cannot shoot, so Wembanyama stays home in the paint. Randle must hit contested jumpers or score inside against Wembanyama.

San Antonio enters as double-digit favorites, signaling market expectations for a blowout. Blowouts kill Overs, as teams lack urgency and avoid fouls when down 10 or more late. The Under hit in four of five Spurs games against the Portland Trail Blazers, three as double-digit favorites.

Prediction: Spurs 113, Timberwolves 98.