Betting Pick Favors Marlins Over Phillies Through Five Innings With Junk on Mound

The Philadelphia Phillies rank among the bigger disappointments in the early MLB season. More than 30 games in, the team fired manager Rob Thomson and named Don Mattingly interim manager. Since the change, Philadelphia has gone 5-1, including a win yesterday that secured at least a 2-2 split in this four-game series against the Miami Marlins.

Tonight, the Phillies start Aaron Nola. He sits at 1-3 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this year. Nola has fared worse on the road, where he allowed 15 of his 21 runs. He gave up five or more runs in each of his last two road starts. The Phillies lost five of Nola's six outings. Marlins batters hit 11-for-26 against him in past meetings.

The Marlins sit at 16-18 but own a winning home record. The team bats .252 with 146 runs and just 25 home runs scored. Miami pitchers post a 3.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Janson Junk starts for Miami. In six outings, he holds a 2-2 mark, 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. At home, his ERA drops to 2.86 over 22 innings. He allowed more than three earned runs in just one start. Junk owns 11 straight scoreless innings, with four hits and two walks in that span. Phillies hitters go 4-for-20 against him, without extra-base hits.

A bettor takes the Marlins through five innings at -120 odds. Nola needs mechanical tweaks despite his track record, while Junk has the edge now.