US Cattle Herd Hits Smallest Size in 75 Years, Driving Beef Prices Higher

Beef prices show no signs of dropping soon, and economists warn the strain could persist for years.

The U.S. cattle herd has dropped to its smallest size in 75 years. Years of drought, rising feed costs and an aging ranching workforce have forced producers to cut back.

"The biggest thing has been drought," Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at Montana State University, told Fox News Digital.

Dry weather over years has destroyed grasslands across the West and Plains. Ranchers lack enough feed or water to maintain their herds. Many have sold cattle early, including breeding cows needed for the next generation of calves. That makes rebuilding even tougher.

Drought raises costs and complicates cattle raising. As conditions deteriorate, hay production drops, feed prices climb and herd sizes contract, according to data from the Kansas City Federal Reserve.

Rebuilding takes time even after weather improves.

"The fact of the matter is there’s really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly," said Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University. "We’re in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and it’ll take several years to get out of it."

Peel specializes in livestock marketing. He said cattle need about two years to reach market, with several more years to rebuild herds. Short-term relief remains scarce.

Supply shortages tell only part of the tale. The U.S. beef industry stays highly concentrated. Four major companies—Tyson, JBS, Cargill and National Beef—handle about 85 percent of the nation’s grain-fed cattle processing.

Regulators have scrutinized that dominance. The Department of Justice probes potential antitrust issues and pricing practices in meatpacking.

Critics say such consolidation lets meatpackers control prices. Industry groups maintain the market stays competitive.

Higher prices have not deterred buyers. U.S. Department of Agriculture data shows average beef prices rose from about $8.70 per pound in March 2025 to $10.08 a year later, up roughly 16 percent.

Demand held firm. Shoppers spent more than $45 billion on beef in 2025 and bought over 6.2 billion pounds, according to data from Beef Research, a contractor for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.