Nine linked Polymarket accounts win $2.4 million on U.S. military bets

Nine connected Polymarket accounts have won more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military actions in what data analytics firm Bubblemaps has identified as a possible case of insider trading.

The anonymous accounts placed winning bets on the dates of key moments in the war with Iran, including the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran's supreme leader, and the announcement of a ceasefire. Across more than 80 bets, the accounts had a 98 percent win rate, even when many wagers were placed at low odds of success, according to Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman, who shared the findings first with 60 Minutes.

"This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far," Vaiman said. "Luck alone cannot explain those numbers."

The nine linked accounts are not the only ones betting on war. More than $1 billion has been staked this year on military decisions and outcomes. The ability to bet on war on prediction markets has created a new category of insider trading.

Prediction markets, which allow users to wager on the likelihood of future events, have grown sharply in popularity. After a U.S. Army soldier was indicted last month for allegedly using classified information to win bets, 60 Minutes examined how insiders may be using nonpublic information.

"This is a new kind of insider trading," said Rob Schwartz, a partner at the law firm Morgan Lewis who spent 13 years at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The biggest prediction market is Polymarket. One feature of the platform is that all trades are public, which allows firms like Bubblemaps to conduct wide analysis. The traders themselves remain anonymous.

In a statement to 60 Minutes, Polymarket said, "When our systems identify suspicious activity, we act — including through referrals to law enforcement and cooperation with investigations," and "insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified."

The U.S. prohibits military bets on platforms like Polymarket, but users can bypass the rules with tools such as VPNs, which cost about $2 a month. That is allegedly how Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke placed wagers on the special operations mission to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty last month to federal charges.

The Justice Department alleges Van Dyke made a series of wagers totaling roughly $34,000, including a half dozen the day before the raid. He netted more than $400,000. According to the indictment, Van Dyke withdrew his profit and then tried to delete his betting account. The company says it has cooperated with law enforcement.

Military bets are ripe for corruption, according to Bubblemaps head of investigations, a former U.S. military officer who goes by the handle "Deebs." 60 Minutes agreed to conceal his identity because of safety concerns.

Deebs said many people involved in a military operation, including government officials, planners, intelligence analysts, and even spouses of service members, could learn classified information.

"And that means that there are, consequently, a lot of potential insiders," Deebs said.

At the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, Michelle Kendler-Kretsch examined long-shot wagers on military markets on Polymarket. Though bettors were wagering on long shots, they won more than they lost. The report found indications of "systemic insider-trading" in betting on military outcomes.

Former commodities trader David Kovel, now a New York lawyer, said he is "highly suspicious" of trades that have taken place this year on commodities markets. He pointed to March 23 as an example.

Fighting in Iran had been underway for more than three weeks and it was a slow trading day in oil futures. Then, according to data from the financial firm LSEG, at 6:50 a.m. ET on March 23, more than $800 million was staked on the chance of oil prices dropping.

Fifteen minutes later, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the White House and Iran had "very good and productive" conversations about ending hostilities. The news sent the price of oil down more than 10 percent, meaning whoever executed those trades made a fortune.

"We're talking tens of millions, could be $80 million," Kovel said.

Asked whether this could be a case of insider trading, Kovel said, "That's a natural conclusion to draw. I can't know it without knowing what happened, but it's a natural conclusion to draw."

60 Minutes has learned that federal investigators are probing the oil market trades. No one has been charged with any crimes associated with the trades.

Several sources told 60 Minutes that if there was trading on nonpublic information, it could have been someone inside the U.S., someone from a foreign country, or even an enemy.

"Identifying who it was would be the secret to figuring out whether it was insider trading or not," Kovel said.

Bets have also led to threats of violence. Soon after Emanuel Fabian, military correspondent for the Times of Israel, wrote about an Iranian strike on an empty forest near Jerusalem, he received messages asking him to change his story. The messages turned darker.

"One of them was, 'You're going to make us lose $900,000. And we'll invest even more than that to finish you,' is what he wrote," Fabian said. "He also wrote details about my siblings as well. He said, 'I know how often you visit your family.'"

The journalist found war bets on Polymarket that hinged on whether an Iranian missile would enter Israel on March 10. His news story voided the side of the bets predicting no missile, angering the losers.

Fabian reported the threats to police and to Polymarket, which said that threatening a journalist was unacceptable and banned the accounts involved.

In an interview with 60 Minutes last year, company CEO Shayne Coplan addressed users having inside information: "I think that people going and having an edge to the market is a good thing. Obviously, you need to curate them and you need to be really clear and stringent on where the line is drawn and, like, sort of ethics and we spend a lot of time on that. But it's sort of an inevitability that this will happen, and there's a lot of benefits from it. And, you know, people will adapt."

Oversight of prediction markets in the U.S. falls to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The CFTC, set up in the 1970s to regulate food prices, is now headed by a single person, Michael Selig, who was nominated by Mr. Trump last fall.

Both CFTC staffing and enforcement actions have dropped sharply since 2024. Selig declined an interview request, but his office told 60 Minutes the commission is hiring more staff and using artificial intelligence to go after bad actors.

In March, the White House issued a memo to staffers noting it is a "criminal offense for anyone to use nonpublic information" on prediction markets.

Bubblemaps head of investigations Deebs said the insider trading on prediction markets could have national security implications. If market watchers can spot irregular trades, enemies of the U.S. can too.

"Just to put it plainly, this could be putting people's lives at risk," Deebs said. "Other adversaries may be using this information in order to plan their own strategy."

Polymarket's full statement said the company has built the most comprehensive market integrity infrastructure in the prediction market industry, combining strict insider trading rules, AI-powered surveillance, and blockchain forensics. The company said it identified the activity in the Van Dyke case, referred it to authorities, and that insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket.