UK summer forecast points to above-average heat and possible heatwaves

The UK could see a warmer-than-average summer with the potential for more heatwaves, according to the latest forecasts.

The Met Office released its three-month summer outlook on 1 June, the first day of meteorological summer. It cited higher-than-normal chances of hotter weather during the month.

For the whole summer, which runs through the end of August, the outlook suggests an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts.

The forecast follows a late spring heatwave that shattered temperature records across the UK. A new all-time May record of 35.1C was set in Kew Gardens, London, replacing the previous record of 32.8C from 1944. Yellow and amber heat health alerts were issued for the first time this year.

Long-range forecasts from the Met Office and MeteoGroup, the latter being providers of BBC Weather data, suggest the summer ahead will bring the risk of additional heatwaves. A few notable high temperature spikes are also possible, according to MeteoGroup.

Above-average temperatures are expected for each of the months of June, July and August, with significant bursts of heat expected in the UK and across Europe.

The Met Office said the higher-than-average temperatures forecast means a hotter summer is now twice as likely compared with the reference averaging period of 1991-2020, consistent with a warming climate.

There is less certainty around summer rainfall totals, with forecasters disagreeing on how the season will play out. MeteoGroup predicts a drier period while the Met Office suggests an average to perhaps even wetter-than-normal season.

The MeteoGroup long-range forecast has precipitation below average overall, especially through June and July across England and Wales. The wettest areas are more likely toward Scotland, where rainfall could be around average.

The Met Office says the chance of a wet summer is slightly higher than normal.

While these long-range predictions give an idea of overall UK conditions over the three-month period of summer, recent years have shown more variability in rainfall patterns. In 2025, while the UK average summer rainfall was 84%, northern and western areas of the UK were much wetter than average while central, eastern and southern parts were much drier with less than half of expected rainfall.

Droughts were declared across much of England in 2025 following a very dry spring, and hosepipe bans followed in the summer after demand for water increased.