UK Local Elections Show Fragmented Vote as Reform Leads in Brexit Strongholds

Overnight local election results confirm that electoral politics in Britain has become highly fragmented, at least for the time being.

In a sample of more than 500 wards where the BBC collected detailed voting figures, Nigel Farage's Reform party recorded an average vote share of 26 percent. The figure is not especially high but enough to place the party well ahead of all rivals.

Reform performed best in places that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016. In wards where more than 60 percent backed Leave in 2016, Reform support averaged 41 percent.

By contrast, in areas where less than 49 percent supported Brexit, Reform averaged just 10 percent. The one council where Reform gained control, Newcastle-under-Lyme, voted nearly two-to-one in favor of Brexit.

The Greens posted more modest results, averaging 16 percent of the vote in wards declared so far, in line with their standing in opinion polls.

That marks a seven-point gain from the party's support in these local elections in 2022 and from its performance in the locals held just before the 2024 general election. The gains point to the Greens on track for their best local election showing ever. Still, the party has a net gain of just 25 seats so far, with several strong second and third places but few wins.

Labour's average vote fell 16 points from 2022 and 19 points from 2024. The drop hit hardest in the party's former strongholds and in wards with many Muslim identifiers.

The pattern amplified Labour's seat losses, now at 250, or half of those it defended. The party has lost control of eight councils.

Conservative support dropped an average of 11 points since 2022 and nine points since 2024, by which time the party had already shed much popularity.

The Conservatives posted a net loss of 137 seats so far, again worst in their prior strong areas. One bright spot came with regaining control of Westminster, a prized London asset lost to Labour in 2022.

That success stemmed from a 17-point plunge in Labour support rather than Conservative gains; the party's own vote fell five points in the remaining Conservative-Labour battleground.

The Liberal Democrats gained control of Portsmouth and Stockport but lost Hull. Their average support dipped three points from both 2022 and 2024.

They picked up seats mainly by capitalizing on steep Conservative or Labour declines where they ran second. The party shows little of the progress seen by Reform or the Greens.