Thaksin Shinawatra Released from Bangkok Prison After Serving Part of One-Year Sentence

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who spent most of the past 20 years in exile and the past eight months in jail, remains a dominant figure in Thailand.

Thaksin, 76, was released from a Bangkok prison wearing an electronic ankle bracelet after serving part of a one-year sentence for corruption and abuses of power during his time as prime minister from 2001 to 2006. The event dominated headlines across Thailand.

Pheu Thai, his party, insisted he would stay out of the spotlight from now on. Media speculation persisted about any future role he might take in Thai politics.

Thaksin, a brash self-made billionaire, swept to power in January 2001 and sought to reshape his country. He gained devoted supporters and bitter opponents in equal measure. His parties continued winning elections even after a military coup deposed him in September 2006. Fear of his ambition among the powerful royalist establishment triggered multiple court rulings against his allies, years of violent street clashes and another coup in 2014.

Thaksin refused to retreat. He ran his party from abroad. After an apparent grand bargain, his conservative opponents let him return home in 2023 to lead it once back in government. He shows no sign of taking a back seat, despite talk of spending time with his grandchildren.

Authorities jailed Thaksin last September. The Supreme Court ruled that six months he spent in a police hospital after returning to Thailand was a ruse to dodge his sentence.

The verdict came less than two weeks after the Constitutional Court ousted his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister. The court acted over a leaked phone call she held with Cambodian leader Hun Sen about handling a border dispute between the countries. Conservative courts once more decided Pheu Thai's fate, as they have repeatedly in recent years.

While Thaksin sat in jail, Pheu Thai posted its worst result ever in the February general election. The party fell to third place behind the reformist People's Party and the conservative Bhumjaithai party. Bhumjaithai gained from a surge of nationalist feeling after the border war with Cambodia. Pheu Thai now serves as a junior partner in the new coalition government.

"Thaksin emerges from prison to a new political environment," said political analyst Ken Lohatepanont. "Pheu Thai has been sidelined as just a mid-sized party. You can never count Thaksin out, but the challenge that he and his party face is of a different magnitude to those he has faced in the past. Pheu Thai will have to decide whether a public comeback for Thaksin will boost the party, or whether the party might be better served by placing the spotlight on their newer generation leaders."

Questions linger in Thailand about why the grand bargain with royalist forces, which ended Thaksin's long exile in 2023, fell apart so fast. Did conservatives always plan to use courts to cripple governments his party led? His first choice for prime minister faced dismissal by courts on a trivial pretext. Or did his refusal to stay in the background, his push to drive the party's agenda and explore new business areas provoke them?

Mistrust between Thaksin and Thai conservatives now appears insurmountable. He will almost certainly be blocked from any prominent political role, even if he seeks one.