NFL broadcast partners may hold leverage over league in rights talks

The prevailing view is that the NFL will pressure its television partners for sharply higher rights fees before the 2029-30 opt-out period, or risk losing packages to streaming platforms. Industry observers are not convinced the league holds as much leverage as it has suggested.

The current broadcast partners, ESPN/ABC, Fox, CBS and NBC, cannot match the market capitalizations of the largest tech companies. Alphabet stands at roughly $4.78 trillion and Amazon at $2.84 trillion. In a straight bidding contest the networks would likely lose. That outcome assumes the streamers want the same packages the networks now hold.

Evidence so far points the other way. Netflix expanded its NFL slate from two games to five this season, adding a Week 1 international game, a Thanksgiving Eve matchup and a Week 18 game to its Christmas Day doubleheader. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo that Netflix is not bidding on whole seasons of sports, including the NFL.

YouTube will carry no NFL games this season. Its free platform makes a single promotional game, such as last season’s Chiefs-Chargers contest from Brazil, workable, but a full weekly schedule would not fit the model. YouTube TV, priced at about $85 a month, would also limit the league’s reach.

Apple, with a market cap near $4.41 trillion, has shown little interest in NFL rights. Amazon remains the exception after taking over Thursday Night Football in 2022, yet industry consensus holds that it is unlikely to pursue the Sunday afternoon regional packages held by Fox and CBS because of the production demands. Amazon is also not expected to challenge ESPN for Monday Night Football.

NBC’s new NBA deal has prompted speculation that it could lose Sunday Night Football, but no clear alternative partner has emerged. The more probable path is that tech companies expand around major events, especially the Super Bowl, rather than weekly packages.

NBC, CBS and Fox already share Super Bowl rotation duties with ESPN/ABC. Additional partners would dilute exclusivity further. Still, the NFL and the broadcast networks remain dependent on each other. Until streaming strategies shift, the networks retain significant leverage in the next round of negotiations.