Koepka favored over Reed; Fitzpatrick, Cantlay draw top-10, top-20 bets at Aronimink

Picking an outright winner on the PGA TOUR remains tough. The world's best golfers gather at Aronimink Golf Club this week for the 2026 PGA Championship, and betting on one to beat the 156-man field carries high risk.

Smart bettors turn to derivative markets instead. Top-five, top-10 and top-20 bets, matchups and groups offer chances to profit from a player's strong form and course fit without needing a victory.

OutKick Bets Podcast highlights these non-outright plays for the event. Units risked appear in parentheses.

Brooks Koepka (-112) over Patrick Reed at Kalshi (0.56u)

Matt Fitzpatrick, top-10 with ties (+228) at Kalshi (0.5u)

Patrick Cantlay, top-20 with ties (+160) at BetMGM (0.75u)

Sepp Straka, top-20 with ties (+275) at BetMGM (0.5u)

Nick Taylor, top Canadian (+220) at FanDuel (0.5u)

Tyrrell Hatton, top LIV golfer (+684) at Kalshi (0.25u)

Koepka enters as a three-time PGA champion in good form. He told reporters at last week's Myrtle Beach Classic, an alternate to the Truist Championship, that it was the best time he has had playing golf in a long time.

Koepka posted five finishes of T18 or better in his last six starts. Those include T13 at THE PLAYERS Championship, T12 at The Masters and T11 at Myrtle Beach.

Reed has not played competitively since a T12 at The Masters last month. Koepka also finished T12 there but lacks Reed's green jacket.

Matt Fitzpatrick draws a top-10 bet as insurance on his outright chances. He has 13 top-10 finishes in his last 25 international starts, with four wins: the 2025 DP World Tour Championship, Valspar Championship in March, and RBC Heritage and Zurich Classic last month.

Fitzpatrick owns two top-10s in PGA Championships, including T8 at Quail Hollow last year. The 2022 U.S. Open champion and four-time European Ryder Cup player ranks fifth in the world on DataGolf.com.

Patrick Cantlay targets a top-20 finish after four straight T12-or-better results: T7 at Valspar, T12 at The Masters, T8 at RBC Heritage and T10 at Truist.

Cantlay performs well on courses similar to Aronimink. He tied for second at the 2025 TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club and tied for ninth at the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club, both Donald Ross designs.

He tied for fourth at the 2025 Truist Championship at nearby Philadelphia Cricket Club, an easier version of Aronimink. Both feature bentgrass greens, Cantlay's best putting surface.

Sepp Straka also eyes a top-20 spot.

Nick Taylor stands out as top Canadian. The five-time PGA TOUR winner, including his national open, offers strong value at +220.

Taylor arrives with solid form: T14 at Truist last week and T9 at the Cadillac earlier this month. He tied for 17th at the 2025 Truist in Philadelphia. Aronimink resembles a forgiving Oakmont Country Club, site of last year's U.S. Open where he tied for 23rd.

Corey Conners, co-favorite at +220, has only two top-20s this year and has lost strokes ball-striking in four straight starts. Taylor Pendrith has putting issues at +300, and Sudarshan Yellamaraju makes his major debut at +270.

Tyrrell Hatton targets top LIV golfer. The Englishman has beaten favorite Jon Rahm in three straight majors and Bryson DeChambeau in two of the last three.

Hatton nearly won the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont, while Rahm salvaged a top-10 and DeChambeau missed the cut. Aronimink demands strong scoring clubs, an area of weakness for DeChambeau, especially with many wedge shots in the first 12 holes.

Hatton shows balance across his game, fitting Aronimink's varied demands.