Golf betting picks for 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch

No days off is the mantra for betting on the PGA Tour, and this week that means the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.

If not for native Texans Scottie Scheffler, the defending champion, and Jordan Spieth, the field would be thin. Out of embarrassment after Scheffler won last year by eight shots at 31 under, the course received millions of dollars in renovations. Fairways are now Zoysiagrass, rough is Bermudagrass and greens are Bentgrass. The changes should make missing the fairway more costly and putting more difficult.

Even so, the average winning score in recent years has been around 26 under, so scoring should remain low. The bettor is avoiding placement wagers and instead focusing on outrights.

Pierceson Coody is listed at plus 4,579 on Kalshi. The University of Texas alum is familiar with Texas conditions. He finished tied for 16th at the RBC Heritage, tied for 38th at the Cadillac Championship and tied for 24th at the Truist Championship. He missed the cut at last week’s PGA Championship but ranked 14th in the field in putting through two rounds on Bent greens. Last year he ranked second in the field in strokes gained off the tee at this event.

Michael Thorbjornsen is plus 4,800 on Kalshi. The 2024 PGA Tour University valedictorian finished tied for 33rd here last year and has gained strokes ball-striking over the last 20 rounds. He ranks 10th on the bettor’s model.

Davis Thompson is plus 5,400 on Kalshi. He finished tied for 14th at the Valero Texas Open and tied for 13th at the Myrtle Beach Classic in his last two starts. Over his last 16 rounds he ranks third in the field in strokes gained tee to green.

Tom Kim is plus 7,200 on DraftKings. The 23-year-old South Korean finished tied for sixth at Myrtle Beach and tied for 18th at the Valspar Championship. He remains strong with his irons and accurate off the tee.

Michael Brennan is plus 7,800 on Kalshi. He ranks third in driving distance and sixth in approach shots from 200 yards and longer. He won the Bank of Utah Championship last fall on a similar easy, driver-heavy course with Bent greens.

Jhonattan Vegas is plus 23,400 on Kalshi. The four-time winner gained the second-most strokes tee to green at last week’s PGA Championship and won the 3M Open in 2024 on a comparable TPC layout.

The one-and-done pick for the Mayo Cup is Pierceson Coody.