Taiwan Watches Trump's Beijing Meetings with Xi for Impact on Island's Security

KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan -- President Donald Trump's meetings with China's leader Xi Jinping in Beijing draw close attention across Taiwan, from the presidential office to military command centers and semiconductor company boardrooms. Many here wonder if Trump will negotiate from strength or leave Taiwan more exposed.

The island nation of 23 million people has faced threats from the Chinese Communist Party for decades. Beijing claims Taiwan as its territory, though it has never ruled the island.

Observers warn Xi might offer Trump deals on tariffs, fentanyl, U.S. business access or global issues like Iran and Ukraine in return for accepting a bigger Chinese role in Taiwan's future.

Taiwan's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu told Bloomberg News, "What we are the most afraid is to put Taiwan on the menu of the talk between Xi Jinping and President Trump."

Huang Kwei-bo, a professor in National Chengchi University's Department of Diplomacy, told Fox News Digital that Taiwan should not assume the status quo will hold. "Taiwan shouldn't rule out the possibility that the United States and mainland China could reach an understanding behind the scenes, agreeing to reduce arms sales to Taiwan, or become less active in helping us meaningfully participate in international space," he said.

Trump acknowledged on Monday that China dislikes U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. He said the topic would be "one of the many things I'll be talking about."

Over the past week, more than 50 Chinese aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line or entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone. Taiwan views these incursions as part of a new normal: steady pressure short of war that keeps its forces on alert. China also cuts undersea internet cables to Taiwan, launches daily hacks on its systems and floods social media with pro-communist content.

Taiwan's semiconductor sector worries Washington. The island hosts Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, the top maker of advanced chips for smartphones, cars, AI systems and U.S. defense gear. Any conflict or blockade would hit American factories, consumers, tech firms and military plans.

No panic shows as the leaders of the nations tied to Taiwan's fate meet. "Most people here are not obsessed with China every day," said Audrey Chiang, who runs a tourist souvenir shop in Kaohsiung. She has a son nearing the one-year military conscript service mandated in 2024 against China's threats. "We go to work. We worry about the next big test at our kids’ school. We complain about traffic. But everyone knows things can change very quickly."

Taiwan's legislature passed a nearly $25 billion supplemental defense bill on May 8 to show Washington that Taipei does not rely solely on U.S. protection. The amount fell short of the almost $40 billion sought by President Lai Ching-te’s administration.

American political analyst Ross Darrell Feingold in Taipei told Fox News Digital that many Taiwanese expect U.S. and possibly Japanese help in a war. "Going back to the Cold War when the U.S. had a treaty obligation to defend Taiwan, and even after the treaty was abrogated, the consistent assumption is that the U.S. president will send in the military to save Taiwan. More recently, there is a growing assumption Japan will do so as well. But Taiwan still must do what is necessary to prove to its partners that Taiwan’s own people will be on the front line," he said.

Taiwan's main parties differ on China policy but back U.S. arms buys and see Beijing as a threat to the democratic island. Chinese officials call Taiwan an internal affair. Taiwan's elected government and most residents reject that and say they alone decide the island's future.

National Pingtung University Associate Professor Paul Lee expects Xi to press Trump hard. He told Fox News Digital that "Xi Jinping almost certainly wants one clear change from the U.S., he’ll want Trump to say the United States ‘opposes Taiwan independence’ rather than the language it uses now that is closer to ‘does not support Taiwan independence.’ To be frank, I don’t think President Trump sees Taiwan as that important – except as the producer of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, and as a source of some revenue from weapons sales."

Lee said such a shift would hurt Taiwan's ruling party and supporters of President Lai's push to assert the island's separate status. It would suggest the U.S. rejects Taiwanese self-determination. Xi would seek more, like barring Lai's U.S. transits, to lock in a framework placing Taiwan in China's sphere. With Trump's second term lasting about three years, Xi aims for lasting rules, Lee added. China sees Trump's challenges with Iran, tariffs and more as its chance.