NYC Public Schools Projected to Lose 153,000 Students by 2034-35

New York City public schools face a projected enrollment drop of 153,000 students by the 2034-35 school year, according to a Statistical Forecasting report prepared for the New York City School Construction Authority.

The report projects enrollment at 721,251 students in 2034-35, down from 2024-25 levels. Over the next decade, all five boroughs will see declines, with Brooklyn losing 45,000 students, Queens 43,000 and the Bronx 35,000.

Planners blame falling birthrates, a resident exodus and an aging population. Statistical Forecasting conducted the projections for the period from 2025-26 through 2034-35.

The trend mirrors national patterns. The New York Times reported Friday that public school enrollment from kindergarten through 12th grade has fallen in 30 states since the mid-2010s.

This year, New York City schools lost 22,000 students, dropping from 906,248 to 884,400 based on preliminary Department of Education data. Enrollment stood above 1,002,000 at the start of the 2019-2020 school year, a net loss of more than 117,000 since then.

A spokesperson for New York City Public Schools told Fox News Digital in January that enrollment can shift for many reasons. "New York City Public Schools is committed to providing a world-class education for all our students," said spokesperson Isla Gething.

"Enrollment can shift for many reasons, and these are trends we monitor closely," Gething added. "Our focus remains on delivering strong academic programs and safe learning environments in every classroom. We continue to engage the whole school community as we plan for the future of our schools with a long term focus on stability, equity, and providing an excellent education regardless of enrollment fluctuations."

The projections come as New York City experiences a renewed population loss. A Citizens Budget Commission study released last month found the city lost about 114,000 more domestic residents to other U.S. cities than it gained in 2025, ending two years of slight growth.

The commission said residents seek better value elsewhere, including lower living costs, taxes and quality of life. NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the education department did not respond to Fox News Digital's request for comment.