Makerfield by-election pits Burnham against Reform UK in test of Labour leadership hopes

In a handful of former mining towns and villages in north-west England, frustration with the state of the UK runs high. Locals often say Britain is broken and that they have been forgotten.

This is the Makerfield constituency, where voters will pick a new MP on 18 June in what is being called the most consequential by-election in decades. The seat accounted for 0.1 percent of voters at the last general election, but the outcome could help decide who becomes the next prime minister.

Labour's candidate, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, has said that if elected he would enter any Labour leadership contest to replace Sir Keir Starmer. His main rival is local plumber Robert Kenyon, standing for Reform UK.

Burnham says the country has been on the wrong path for 40 years. Reform UK claims Britain is broken. Yet conversations with voters, residents, business owners and campaigners in Makerfield show a more varied picture.

At Rose's Cafe in Ashton-in-Makerfield, owner Yasmin Ratcliffe opened the business in 2023 after the local council spent £6.6 million on town regeneration. She says the town feels busier and her team is growing. Wages in the constituency sit above the national average and home ownership is high.

Greater Manchester has seen growth in developments, service start-ups and university graduates. Chris Ratcliffe, Yasmin's husband, founded Langen, a motorcycle manufacturer, in Ashton in 2019. Its first run of 100 bikes sold out. He says he wants to prove the area can succeed.

The picture is uneven. Better-off neighbourhoods such as Ashton, Orrell and Winstanley sit alongside more deprived areas including Platt Bridge, Abram and Hindley. In the latter, complaints about local conditions are sharper.

In Bickershaw, an illegal dump that began piling up in late 2024 remains despite complaints, a fire last summer and a criminal investigation. Nicha Rowson, who lives nearby with her husband and two children, says rats infested her home and the ceiling had to be removed. The smell reaches a quarter of a mile away.

In Platt Bridge, Dawn Royds says her home flooded in 2015 and again on New Year's Day last year. A government minister visited after the second flood. Since 2024 the government has allocated £2.65 billion for flood defences nationwide, with £329,000 set aside for Platt Bridge and nearby areas in 2026-27. Royds remains convinced flooding will return.

A More in Common report last year found that "broken" was the word Britons most often used to describe the country. Focus groups in Makerfield produced similar results, though participants often said they trusted their neighbours and viewed their local area positively.

Reform UK's Kenyon is focusing on local issues such as opposing new housing on green-belt land and presenting himself as an ordinary resident. The party says voters already believe Britain is broken and does not need more persuasion on that point.

Burnham has knocked on doors across the constituency and links his national cost-of-living proposals to his record as mayor, including cheaper bus fares. His team says he is prepared for difficult conversations in a seat Labour has held for 120 years under previous boundaries, though Reform UK won every ward in May's local elections.

Other candidates include Green Party's Sarah Wakefield, former Wigan mayor Michael Winstanley for the Conservatives, and Liberal Democrat Jake Austin. A newer party, Restore Britain, led by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe, is also standing. It has placed third in limited constituency polls and gained attention after support on X from Elon Musk. One issue it highlights is the killing of teenager Henry Nowak; the party wants a referendum on restoring the death penalty for murder.

Burnham and Reform UK both discuss re-industrialisation in advanced manufacturing as a route to reversing economic decline. Local campaigner Mark Webster says the area has been left to fester and that residents feel their children are only suited for warehouse work. He asks why computer-science or military-tech jobs are absent.

Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, says the by-election functions as a proxy prime ministerial contest. A Burnham win would show he can beat Reform UK in a tight race. A Reform UK victory would give the party momentum and leave Labour and Burnham's ambitions in disarray. The stakes, he says, are high.