Labour Expected to Lose Senedd Control After 27 Years in Wales

Labour is expected to lose the Senedd election, multiple party sources told the BBC, ending its 27-year rule in Wales.

The party has won Westminster and Cardiff Bay elections in the country for more than a century, but opinion polls suggest Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are competing for first place.

Welsh government's deputy first minister Huw Irranca-Davies did not concede but called the election tough for his party. Voting ended at 10 p.m. BST on Thursday, with counting on Friday and results covered by BBC Wales.

First Minister Eluned Morgan's seat faces threat, sources say, and the Welsh Labour leader may not return to the Senedd. A defeat was expected after weak polls, but a loss in Wales carries historic weight.

A former Welsh government minister told BBC Wales that if results match predictions, UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer should step down as prime minister.

Plaid Cymru and Reform UK framed the election as a two-way contest to draw voters from other parties. More seats improve their odds of forming a government alone or in coalition.

No party is expected to win a majority of 49 of the 96 Senedd seats under the new proportional system, though Reform's Welsh leader Dan Thomas said Tuesday his party could achieve it.

After polls closed Thursday, Irranca-Davies said, "We know this has been a tough election campaign, fought in difficult circumstances. After many years in government in Wales, and with Labour now governing across the UK, there was always going to be a strong mood for change and frustration. The ongoing pressures people face from the cost of living are real and hurt deeply."

Former Welsh counsel general Mick Antoniw called it Labour's toughest election in living memory. He said it centered more on Downing Street and immigration than Wales.

"What we have to ensure is that Wales has a progressive and stable government and that almost certainly will require responsible partnership," said Antoniw, who did not run again.

On whether Sir Keir could remain prime minister, Antoniw added, "If the results are as bad as predicted then there will have to be a change of leadership. Not an immediate departure but a planned, orderly and open transition and an open and transparent contest."

Several Welsh Labour MPs told BBC Wales they did not expect a challenge to Sir Keir despite one frontbencher describing the mood as rock bottom. Some called for bolder policies and lessons learned.

Morgan said repeatedly during the campaign that Sir Keir was not on the ballot. Asked Wednesday if he could stay on after a Welsh loss, she avoided speculation.

Labour sources said the prime minister came up negatively on doorsteps. A grudging nod to his handling of the UK response to the Iran war soured over the Lord Mandelson saga.

A senior Welsh Labour figure called polling day awful. "I've never known anything like it. We've been knocking on the doors of people who've consistently voted Labour in the past only to find the vast majority have voted Plaid, Reform, Green or importantly stayed at home," they said.

"The Plaid message 'we're the only party to stop Reform' has really cut through. But Reform have also cashed in big time on disillusionment with Keir Starmer and our Labour government."

Nigel Farage launched Reform's campaign by calling the election a referendum on Starmer.

Labour has topped every general election in Wales since 1922. One founder, Keir Hardie, served as MP for Merthyr Tydfil from 1900 to 1915. Labour won every Welsh election since the National Assembly for Wales began in 1999 and led every government since, controlling health, education, transport and local government.

A confirmed defeat would prompt soul-searching and a search for new direction in Welsh Labour. The party could still negotiate a deal with Plaid Cymru or others to form the next government.

The result may affect the prime minister as Labour eyes tough local elections in England and the Scottish Parliament vote.

Reform UK said, "We're proud to have run a campaign based on putting the Welsh people first."

Welsh Liberal Democrats aim to expand beyond 2021, when only leader Jane Dodds won a seat. "Whatever the result tonight, our party will continue fighting for stronger local services, a fairer economy and a Wales where every community has the opportunity to thrive," she said.