European Leaders Harden Stance Against Trump Administration on Iran, Ukraine and Trade

Friedrich Merz's criticism of Donald Trump last month went beyond personal candor or a Berlin-White House rift. It signaled a wider change among European leaders, who now openly challenge the Trump administration on Iran, Ukraine and European sovereignty.

The administration's erratic policies and the need for a stronger reply partly drive this change.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz aimed his comments at the war on Iran. Speaking at a school event in his constituency, he said Trump lacked a viable exit strategy. Tehran’s diplomacy had also humiliated the US, he added. Merz's remarks built on tough statements from Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer and Giorgia Meloni.

The US bid to buy Greenland this year violated European red lines on a NATO ally's territorial integrity and Greenlanders' self-determination. Trump and Vice President JD Vance also tried to sway Hungary's election toward Viktor Orbán.

These incidents alone do not account for Europe's firmer position. European capitals now believe Washington wields less influence over the continent than a year ago.

The Iran war showed the US relies on Europe-based military bases to project power in the Middle East, so the dependency runs both ways. Europe's military spending has jumped since Trump returned to office, with more funds going to European arms makers.

The US dominates Europe's arms market. But the Sipri think tank said the US share of arms transfers to Europe dropped to 58 percent from 2021 to 2025, down from 64 percent in the 2020-24 period.

Europe applies the same reasoning to Ukraine. Since March 2025, the US has stopped all funding to Kyiv, leaving the EU to provide most support. Ukraine buys weapons via NATO's US-inspired prioritized requirements list but gets a bigger portion elsewhere: 60 percent from domestic production and 20 percent from European suppliers.

The US supplies key intelligence and air defense. Even so, European officials think a big cut in US aid there would not cause an instant Ukrainian collapse. A less US-reliant Ukraine reduces Europe's dependence too.

European governments also note that many Trump threats fail to fully materialize, facing pushback from Congress, courts and parts of his MAGA coalition.

EU leaders worry less about MAGA's sway on European elections after Trump and Vance's failed meddling in Hungary. Trump's unpopularity across Europe gives leaders a poll boost when they stand firm against the US.

This changed attitude will guide Europe's handling of future US clashes, especially trade. If Washington imposes higher tariffs on European cars as threatened, the EU plans a sharper response than last year, when it accepted a 15 percent hike under the US-EU Turnberry deal.

EU states have approved retaliation on €93 billion ($100 billion) of US exports, though the European Commission might negotiate at first. The EU will keep pursuing de-risking from the US in defense, digital services and other areas.

The Greenland issue may return. Danish, Greenlandic and US officials working on Arctic security concerns have made little headway. Renewed territorial threats from Trump would likely trigger the EU's anti-coercion tool against US high-tech services.

Europe's ties with the US grow less deferential. Governments feel stronger against US pressure. Trump's image of invincibility has faded at home and abroad. His allies no longer see a need to flatter him through his second term.