Court Rulings Boost Republicans in Redistricting Battles Ahead of Midterms

Democrats face a tougher path to flip the House in this year's midterm elections after two major court rulings.

The Virginia Supreme Court last week struck down the state's voter-approved congressional redistricting ballot measure. A week earlier, the U.S. Supreme Court cut a key protection from the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Both decisions delivered setbacks to Democrats and boosted President Donald Trump and Republicans in their mid-decade redistricting fight. The House GOP gained some room to protect its slim majority as the battle for control of the House and Senate looms in the final two years of Trump's second term.

The Virginia ruling eliminated four congressional districts likely to lean Democratic. The Supreme Court decision, which held that race cannot dictate legislative maps, prompted Republican-led southern states to redraw lines and add right-leaning seats before the midterms.

"We have a battlefield, a map, that favors Republicans," said Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, in a Monday Fox News Channel interview. He noted the GOP could gain up to a dozen more Republican-leaning House districts from redistricting Trump started a year ago.

Some Republicans worry the new maps in GOP areas might weaken safe seats by spreading Republican voters thinner.

"You could in essence take … like here in Texas, take big cities, which are typically Democrat, and split them up among several sort of suburban and rural Republicans and thereby reduce their margin and make [House Republicans] more vulnerable in an election year," said Karl Rove, a veteran GOP strategist and longtime Fox News contributor, on Sunday's Fox News Channel.

House Democrats pledged to continue the redistricting fight.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wrote in a Monday letter to Democrats: "Our effort to forcefully push back against the Republican redistricting scheme will not slow down. We are just getting started."

With midterm filing deadlines approaching and a conservative majority on the Supreme Court unlikely to help, Democrats have few legal paths left.

Democrats still benefit from political winds against Republicans. As the party in power, Republicans face historical losses in midterms. Inflation at 3.8 percent, gas prices averaging $4.50 per gallon nationwide, and prices outpacing wages for the first time in three years add pressure. Polls link high gas costs to Trump's unpopular war with Iran, and his approval ratings have dropped.

Democrats have highlighted affordability to win ballot measures and flip seats in Republican areas over the 15 months since Trump returned to the White House.

Trump said this week, "I don't think about Americans' financial situation," while discussing Iran war negotiations. Democrats seized on the remark.

"Given the highly unfavorable political environment confronting House Republicans, the extremists will not meaningfully benefit from their scandalous gerrymandering scheme. Quite the opposite," Jeffries wrote.

Nonpartisan analysts still favor Democrats for House control. The Cook Report said Democrats remain favored due to the poor national environment for the GOP, though not by a wide margin. Sabato's Crystal Ball agreed Democrats hold the edge, especially if conditions do not improve for Republicans.